Mark Zilbert’s February Miami Beach Market Update
MIAMI BEACH LOVES STEAK HOUSES. Most people who know me know that I spend many evenings at South Beach’s PRIME 112, the legendary steak house on Ocean Drive. Well, the restaurant may be getting some competition. Both MORTON’S STEAKHOUSE and GIBSONS STEAKHOUSE OF CHICAGO are planning to open locations in South Beach. Morton’s is planning to open a location at 40th and Collins, while Gibsons will be onsite at the Continuum condo complex.
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WANT A SOUTH BEACH BODY? A new company is launching an innovative service for visitors to South Beach. WILLPOWER PHYSIQUES will create a customized program of personal-training, food delivery, massage therapy and even rejuvenation counseling from the comfort of your hotel room during your visits to South Beach. They come to you, wherever you are. In just a few weeks, you’re ready to show off your stuff to the envy of South Beach’s supermodels. William Ltaif, a local fitness celebrity, launched the service recently and has already signed an impressive list of VIP clients. WILLPOWER’S services are offered strictly by appointment, so contact me if you’d like to learn more. The company also offers its inclusive fitness and food delivery programs to most condo residences in South Beach.
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BIG HAPPENINGS IN SOUTH BEACH. We’re at the peak of the winter season in South Beach. The International Boat Show is running this week, followed by the Food and Wine Festival, followed by the International Film Festival. I’m happy to report that despite some of the negative news that real estate has been generating recently, we’re seeing an increase in buyers looking for luxury condos.
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CONTINUUM II READY TO OPEN ITS DOORS. One of the most-anticipated condo openings is right around the corner. Our firm will have some incredible (well-priced) oceanfront condos to sell in the next few weeks, so stay tuned if you’ve been in the market for something at Continuum II. If you happen to be a buyer at Continuum II and want to sell your condo, we’re going to have one of the greatest marketing programs for Continuum II launching in just a few weeks. Look for it.
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OCEAN DRIVE MAGAZINE FEATURES MARK ZILBERT. Keep your eyes open for the upcoming March 2008 edition of Ocean Drive. I will be giving readers of the magazine tips on how to hunt for bargain properties in South Beach. There are numerous buying opportunities, and buyers are taking advantage of the excess condo inventory. In South Beach, we’re really not seeing the “fifty-cents-on-the-dollar” market like some believe, though. We have, however, seen incredible price reductions of 20-30%. Plus, mortgage rates are lower, giving buyers more buying power.
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| A Market Snapshot To help some of our customers understand the current state of the Miami Beach real estate market, I recently compiled some statistics from the local realtor associations (the Southeast Florida MLS system). We took a look at Miami Beach condos from South Beach through mid-beach, where the listing price was $500,000 or greater and where the condos had 2, 3 or 4 bedrooms. We also looked at sales data from January 1, 2007 and later. This is what we found:
· 471 condos sold in this period. 402 have closed. The other 69 units are in various stages of closing. o 237 (59%) sold in the $500K-$1M range. 113 (28.1%) sold in the $1M-$2M range. And 58 units (10.6%) sold for over $2M. · There are 1357 current, active listings that match this same criteria. o 826 (61.9%) are in the $500K-$1M range. 349 (26%) are in the $1M-$2M range. And 174 (12.1%) of these active listings are listed above $2M. · This is a significant result. While inventories are high, the data suggests a UNIFORM market. The ratio of properties that are listed for sale and those that are selling has been consistent for well over a year. · The ratio of current, available apartments to the number sold in the period since January 1, 2007 is 2.881-to-1. So, for every one sale, there are now just under 3 available units. We think that makes Miami Beach something very special. THE BIG WINNERS - Here is a list of some of the highest-valued condos selling since January 2007:
Fear of Declining Values While these numbers are much better than we would have imagined (given all the negative press about real estate), we are not ready to declare Miami Beach’s market as having stabilized. We are guessing that 2008 will see some additional declines in market value, but modestly. We feel that we are near the bottom of the market (in the luxury sector), and 2008 will ultimately see prices smooth out towards the end of the year. We further expect 2009 to have flat market values, then start rising upwards in 2010. This is merely our prediction, however, but many seem to agree with us. The problem, of course, is that many buyers are holding-off on condo purchases, for fear of continuing declines in market value. Thankfully, the strong European and Canadian currencies are fueling purchases of properties in the area. Also, newly-reduced mortgage rates may be having an impact. Buyers need to be cautious, but can certainly benefit from purchasing in today’s market. Tips For Buyers There are great deals out there. Look for condos that were purchased PRIOR to 2004. It’s possible that the sellers have a lot of room to move on the pricing. Unfortunately, sellers who purchased properties in 2005 or later may find that their condos are worth about what they paid for them, or even less. This may take a few years to correct. We see great deals at The Waverly, Murano Grande and even Continuum I. Watch out for condos where defaults or foreclosures are on the rise. While you may get a good price, you may also find yourself being hit with special assessments to cover the shortage in maintenance fees caused by defaulting owners. This could amount to thousands of dollars per owner. Tips For Sellers Don’t assume that your condo is worth what it was worth last year. Buyers today are bargain hunting. Even the ultra-luxury buyers are looking for the best deals. If you want to sell quickly, you need to drop your pricing to become among the lowest priced condo in your category. Buyers are generally looking at the 3-5 least expensive units in a building, so make sure your condo is in that list. If you are not willing to offer a bargain price, it’s unlikely that you will sell in the short term. Sellers of NEWLY-finished condos (especially Downtown condos) should expect losses. The key is to mimimize your loss and unload your property. Buyers are out there, if you price is a good one. How We Can Help If you are a buyer or a seller, let us sit down with you and help you understand the best and smartest way to play in today’s real estate market. There is something for everybody, but we have to play smart. |